swartzfr

swartzfr

6p

4 comments posted · 0 followers · following 0

17 years ago @ Paul Kedrosky: Infecti... - Solar Power: At a Cusp? · 0 replies · +1 points

The anti-nuke crowd is probably more intense. I don't think people are anti-carbon simply they are pro-renewable.
I think we need all of them.

17 years ago @ Paul Kedrosky: Infecti... - Solar Power: At a Cusp? · 0 replies · +1 points

A revolution will never occur.. instead it will be an evolution.

17 years ago @ The Disciplined Investor - TDI Podcast 92: An Una... · 0 replies · +1 points

Yes I read his books.
He is very smart in his domain.
I just don't think his demographic thesis is that compelling in light of the overriding debt meltdown.

He also predicted dow 35K at one point.
What he predicts may come true but I don't think it will be due to demographics.
Much more powerful forces are now in play. Demographics are marginal.
The current drop in consumption has nothing to do with demographics.
Balance sheets are the issue.

Must be taken with a grain of salt just like Schiff.

17 years ago @ The Disciplined Investor - TDI Podcast 92: An Una... · 2 replies · +1 points

I think Mr. Dent gives his theories (demographic swifts) too much emphasis. While it is a factor it is not the driver in the current situation. Pure demographic shifts will impact the economy in a much more subtle and gradual way. What he failed to see was the debt deflation, brought on by excess leverage, which supersedes his demographic shift theories. This crisis will change the behaviors of people both old and young. People will work longer save more consume less as a result of the debt crisis not because of the demographic shifts. With all due respect to Mr. Dent I believe he is locked into selling his book and therefore married to this demographic shift paradigm.