IntenseDebate - mike simonsen

11 years ago @ Altos Research: How�... - Real Estate Shadow Dem... · 1 reply · +1 points

One of the things we like about our data is that it leads the headlines by 3-6 months. My very first blog post for Altos in October 2005, before we even launched the company was about San Jose prices turning flat for the first time in years!

At the time, we had much shorter history, and I had much less confidence in what we were seeing, so I didn't crow as loudly. We've now had seven years of leading the headlines by 3-6 months. We get to call the inflection points before anyone else does. Right now, the market happens to be up. It's been up for over a year, so the headlines happen to be saying similar things as the real-time data.

11 years ago @ Altos Research: How�... - Real Estate Shadow Dem... · 3 replies · +1 points

Hi Jim - don't confuse my posts illustrating the actual facts of the current housing market with cheerleading for US housing policy!

Tim - Don't confuse me reporting the fact that the market is hot that I give a damn about whether you should buy or sell. I'm not at all interested in motivating home buying. I'm personally thinking of selling. And of course I concur that future demographic shifts will impact the market in the future.

This post is merely an explanation of what's happening right now.

Jim and Tim - I'm interested in measuring the actual conditions. The actual conditions happen to be on fire. None of this is reported anywhere as good or bad. It just is. If the market were tanking then my articles would be about that. I have 7 years of blog posts and speeches titled things like "It's worse than you think" to prove it!

11 years ago @ Altos Research: How�... - Real Estate Shadow Dem... · 0 replies · +1 points

Oh and I'm usually so careful with my punctuation!

11 years ago @ Altos Research: How�... - Three Reasons Why Hous... · 0 replies · +2 points

Hi Andy - we do indeed track a million rentals every week too. Fascinatingly, rental demand is as strong as purchase demand. The supply changes haven't been as dramatic, but it turns out that "housing" demand in general is the driver. Look at any hot housing market and I'll show you a hot rental market. Topic for another post!

11 years ago @ Altos Research: How�... - Why is Housing Invento... · 0 replies · +1 points

Hi Rob - That comment is based on the data that shows inventory is low. Obviously we're seeing no big flood of shadow inventory. The hypothesis that it's related to improving market conditions is my take on the cause of low inventory. We've seen over time a compelling correlation of improving conditions (measured by what we call "psychological indicators", like Days on Market) and a declining rate of new defaults. That is, it's pretty obvious in the data that people default more when the market is ugly than they do in an improving market - even when their LTV is the same! So that's the foundation for the observations here. I haven't spent the time to do any detailed academic-style work on the topic. I just get to bloviate on the blog ;-)

12 years ago @ Altos Research: How�... - New WordPress Plugin: ... · 0 replies · +2 points

It sure is!

12 years ago @ Altos Research: How�... - Forbes 500 Most Expens... · 0 replies · +1 points

Hi Madhaus - that's great detailed work!�

I can't speak to formatting errors or presentation decisions in the Forbes piece, but I can answer a few of the specific questions for you.�

Yes there were methodology changes year to year. We try to capture the most representative markets and have to establish some guidelines for doing so. We'll certainly change approach If we think we can get a better view. It's not an exact science. For example as you point out, condo pricing is a big factor in this output, potentially bigger than years past. What does it actually mean to have a blended average across property types anyway? It's one way to look at a market, though I personally prefer to keep property types distinct.�

For this piece we try to control for small markets. All the rankings on this list are based on active inventory not closed transactions. We had a minimum threshold of homes for sale in a 90-day rolling average. We did not count transactions.�

Ultimately, this type of piece is not academic work, it's designed to inform and entertain and create some conversation. I think the Forbes folks were quite successful on this front.�

Thanks again for the interesting take on it. Good luck with your site!

M

12 years ago @ Altos Research: How�... - The History of Good News · 0 replies · +1 points

Always nuanced, ain't it, Ed? ;-)

Interestingly, the math in your example shows why good housing data uses median pricing rather than average (mean). In your scenario, the median price is $300k all the way through. So, no, prices didn't rise.

12 years ago @ Altos Research: How�... - How to Interpret Today... · 0 replies · +1 points

You bet, Troy. We couldn't agree more. Thats precisely what our clients pay us for. Local, real time data and the apps to understand what is actually happening out there.

13 years ago @ Altos Research: How�... - Foreclosure Moratorium... · 0 replies · +2 points

oops. of course you're right. I've updated the post thanks.

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