Hi Mark -
I enjoyed this post but am having trouble with your math. In month 1 it looks like there should be a net gain of 30 customers (150 adds less 120 cancels) yet that is not what the math shows. What am I not getting?

The flyby shot with the balloons is simply incredible. You forget how fast they are going until you see something like that.

So could the owner of this patent sue Intellectual Ventures for infringement?

I thought QE2 was supposed to push down long term interest rates. I'm no bond market junkie but my understanding is that has happened. If that's the case, my question is why are 30 year mortgage spreads gapping out? And I guess that is what Paul is asking as well.

Bill, you don't propose an alternative in your post but I assume you have one in mind (more specific than "equity") - something like convertible preferred with a liquidation preference?

Separately, I have never understood why an early stage investor would demand any partial "refund" of their financing (whether interest payments or preferred dividends), as both consist of the return of, not on, invested capital until the company starts to pick up traction.

I've worked in many "hard asset" liquidations and even then no creditors are ever happy. I can't imagine what a liquidation of a startup whose assets consist primarily of ideas in programmers' heads would be like.

Which ones? My guesses: corn, wheat, soybeans, rice... barley? Sorghum? I wouldn't think poultry or livestock but I could be wrong.

Of course, by hedging this "disaster risk" one must contract with a counterparty, thereby taking on counterparty credit risk. What's to guarantee put writers will be around to pay up at the end of the day? For those of us who lack Goldman's clout, the "next AIG" might not end so fortuitously for us.

I hate the Mac version of Excel. I am a pretty hardcore Excel user due to my job in finance and despite best efforts I am not able to work nearly as effectively on my Mac as on my thinkpad. It's a shame, as I prefer the Mac in pretty much every other area, but Numbers is a sad cartoon compared with Excel and the Mac version just doesn't get as much TLC from Microsoft...

Condo conversions? I'd bet on some sort of residential real estate cause.

Bill - thanks for the response. I am stil not convinced, however. For a more articulate version of my thoughts, check out James Kwak:http://baselinescenario.com/2010/05/21/carried-in... . He cites one of your old posts in his argument.