IntenseDebate - Edward Harrison

15 years ago @ mitcho.com - Using Templates with Y... · 2 replies · +1 points

I have been using the caching feature and it works incredibly well. This is a great improvement. The initial caching took about 20 minutes for the 1500 posts. Afterward everything was as it had previously been. But now CPU usage is way down and it works marvelously. I have seen a good increase in my pageviews per user as a result. Thanks for the upgrade. I can't say enough about it.

15 years ago @ Credit Writedowns - The case against the Euro · 0 replies · +1 points

You may be right about the Euro, Gerb. It is not entirely clear where currencies are headed as much of it has to do with politics and the policy response to this banking crisis.

I should add that my points regarding Ireland and Spain's desire for an accomodative policy response was well placed. On the whole, the post holds up quite well, actually given it was written in June when the Euro was soaring.

15 years ago @ Credit Writedowns - Bailouts: catching a f... · 0 replies · +1 points

I am not suggesting a Lehman-style approach is the way forward. I think a comprehensive review followed by an FDIC-style seizure or forced meger will be the best way in 90% of the cases. Sometimes, liquidation or nationalization will be best, but ultimately it needs to be a well-crafted and orderly process. Savers have been given guarantees and the FDIC-like process of letting another bank take over the deposits is the right approach so that there is no effect on large savings deposits. The banks fund the FDIC scheme in the U.S.

In the U.K. the Lloyds-HBOS link up was botched because HBOS turned out to be in considerably worse shape than anticipated. Now, Lloyds customers and shareholders are feeling the pain. This is the kind of thing that needs to be avoided.

15 years ago @ Credit Writedowns - Bailouts: catching a f... · 0 replies · +1 points

That's a good question. My take: first the deflation and deleveraging and then the inflation. That means that for the foreseeable future the financial services sector will be in a shrinking mode -- shrinking assets and credit growth along with them. Inflation is not going to be a factor in that environment. So inflation cannot inflate away the real burden of banks' own problems. Down the line, it may help debtor consumers, but it won't help the banks.

In my view, banks need to get a handle on how much they have coming in writedowns first and foremost. Then they need to find a way to get adequate capital to deal with those writedowns. On some level, who cares where this capital comes from, because when they have it: we can return to some sense of normalcy. However, if we keep propping up these zombie institutions, the writedowns are going to increase and that will put us further away from our goal.

15 years ago @ Credit Writedowns - Is Obama really "Chang... · 0 replies · +1 points

Nathan, after hearing the things he has already said, I would tend to agree.

15 years ago @ Credit Writedowns - Peter Schiff: "Governm... · 0 replies · +1 points

Good points all around from everyone. We may disagree on some of the specifics, but I must say that many of your sentiments are well-placed. I would say, however, a true Libertarian interpretation of events does not include a 'moral' component here. That is antithetical to Libertarianism. I have sympathy for those who got in over their heads. The true 'moral' problem rests with policy makers who created poor incentives, encouraging excess consumption and debt.

As for Ron Paul, I like Ron Paul. He is on my blogroll and he speaks a truth many do not want to hear. I suspect some of his views may become more mainstream as the depth of contraction becomes apparent.

15 years ago @ Credit Writedowns - Conoco Phillips' $34 b... · 0 replies · +1 points

Hi mL, I'm with you on oil prices dropping to the mid 20s (http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/12/top-ten-p...so I am not really saying that the oil patch is going to rise overnight per se. But I am saying that I see $25 as a cyclically low price.

The $10 number is an extreme example of a cyclical low. I don't see oil falling to those levels again. (I didn't anticipate $35 either, so what the heck). Interestingly, my bogey for oil, $25, is the midpoint of the old OPEC $22-28 optimal range before oil started to go through the roof.

Oil is very volatile, but I am a believer in the commodity bull market returning after the emerging economies work their way through this crisis. That includes all industrial commodities and oil as well.

15 years ago @ Credit Writedowns - Peter Schiff: "Governm... · 3 replies · +1 points

steven, I like the example. It does demonstrate the opportunity cost of government spending. Steven, don't get me wrong, government stimulus comes at a price. I am no Keynesian. However, tell me that we are going to see a downturn without a systemic collapse and I'll recommend your solution. I don't think you can say that.

One other thought: Austrian Economics is very concerned with efficiency. As a result, I think many miss the very real human need for fairness both in the short and in the long-term. An efficient outcome does not always seem fair and is thus sometimes inherently unstable. An example might be a monopoly in operating systems for Microsoft. A situation like this will always be seen as unfair and will be resisted regardless of efficiency.

I guarantee you that if you gave a Myers-Briggs test to a random sample of Austrian school devotees, there would be a massive skew toward rationals: NTs. (http://www.wischik.com/damon/Texts/myersbriggs.ht...We rationals (I am clearly a rational) are too fixated on efficiency at the expense of other factors. That often makes proposed remedies unrealistic: think the efficient market hypothesis here.

hbl, thanks for your kind words.

15 years ago @ Credit Writedowns - Peter Schiff: "Governm... · 2 replies · +1 points

"TARP."

But, seriously, Jim, find me one time when the government sat on its hands when the economy was imploding. 1921 in the U.S. might qualify. But, my point is that intervention is going to happen. It's axiomatic when it comes to crisis. Basic human psychology would predict this. The question is what should/could the government do. You have to remember, absent the need for intervention that I am making, there also is the need to be re-elected. It is not a politically viable decision to sit on your hands. Even the Germans are waking up to this.

So again:
1. Economic pain leads to calls for government action
2. Inaction means no re-election
3. Therefore, government action in crisis (economic or otherwise) is always going to be a factor
4. Therefore, the real question is: what can a government do that is likely to do the least harm, temporarily alleviate economic distress, and allow politicians to keep their jobs.

I live in Washington. I was born here. I know how government works and I understand that the Peter Schiff solution is both improbable because of the politics of crisis and ineffective because of the realities of systemic risk.

15 years ago @ Credit Writedowns - Peter Schiff: "Governm... · 0 replies · +1 points

hbl, I agreed with Schiff 100% in July of 2008. I was reading through my posts to see what I was saying before the market implosion. And I was as categorical regarding no government stimulus as Schiff.

But, the market meltdown taught me that a systemic collapse was much more likely than I had thought. There is no way to get out of this mess without a total collapse in the banking system and in the economy without some measure of government intervention and stimulus. SO you could say that my views have been tempered by events while Schiff's have not.

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