This perspective is interesting to read, because for those of us who literally grew up on the Internet, the "established business models" just don't make sense. They feel counter-intuitive to what we grew up on (the Internet).

It's as if there are 3 segments of people.

1. Those who only know old business.
2. Those who knew old business but were smart enough to transition into new online life
3. Those who only grew up knowing online

As Segment 1 ages, I think the pace of adoption of Internet models will only accelerate.

Fantastic post. The first book that came to mind when I saw this post in my RSS feeder was The Black Swan, which you immediately referenced. As humans we are really awful at making predictions and really good at looking at things in hindsight.

Yet there is something in our human nature that makes us look for predictions, patterns, and explanations.

In the financial world, it's analysts trying to predict future earnings and being completely wrong (Peter Lynch has a great write up on this in One up On Wall Street.) In the sports world, it's experts on ESPN trying to predict game outcomes and Superbowl winners. etc etc. In many ways, watching Sportscenter is akin to watching CNBC.

Perhaps the easiest prediction is that we as humans will always try to predict.

hahahahahahaha, i think this is the first post of yours where I've actually laughed out loud