I am new to the QDR, so I don't have a lot of experience. I have been involved in developing my agency's long-range threat assessment and it attempts to look out 20 years. I found this to be a daunting task, like trying to predict the future. One of the things I had to do was take a look at past assessments from other agencies (we had never done an assessment of such magnitude).

A smart man, for whom I have great respect, used to say that the best predictor of future performance is past performance; this doesn't wholly apply here, but I believe it has merit. One must reflect on recent history or performance to get a perspective on the future. The past is somewhat of a foundation on which the future is built.

Ultimately, the QDR is a four-year look at what is important to the DoD and its relativity to the security of the nation. Many people have criticized this global war on terrorism for its focus on high-tech material to fight this irregular war in which we are involved.