I find the pols to be so damn annoying; on both sides. But the admin especially as they completely dismantle the country. If you're successful, shame on you! But as far as this unemployment thing, it's ridiculous how lefty the press is (aside from Fox of course) that they don't report that Republicans were for it IF it were paid for. How 'bout the hundreds of billions in stimulus that's still unspent, why couldn't it have come from that? The Dems insist on pissing away every dollar possible because you don't gain popularity by being fiscally responsible. You win votes by giving shit away. It's repulsing and our children will be ashamed of our generation some day - because they're going to be shouldered with this debt. But hey 99 weeks isn't nearly enough unemployment for some, let's just make it indefinite, right?

Cool post; make sure to revisit (I'm curious where I end up too!)

Bonds - by 2011, yes probably higher rates, but they may very well remain where they are for months. Europe's a mess and people still believe in the good ol' US of A for safetyas strange as it seems.

Unemployment - Right on. College grads can't get real jobs. The jobs lost aren't coming back. The world is changing and Washington doesn't get it. Taxes, protectionism on incessant tinkering are doing nothing to help.

GDP - Will actually hit 3% or more. It's coming off a terrible base and the administration thinks nothing of indiscriminantly printing money. More money in the system makes it easy to artificially boost GDP and equities.

Inflation - We may actually be looking at a deflationary environment. It's tough to say. This is one the economists don't have concensus on - either hyperinflation or deflation, doesn't seem to be much concensus for moderate historical 2-4%.

Fed Funds Rate - They'll raise before that. Odd enough, it's kind of a sign that you've got some balls and the economy's improving (oooh, inflation must be brewing), so it's a race to start raising rates. Australia and Canada are in a pissing match and far be it from the US to be left out.

Double Dip Recession - Probably not, just moderate growth buoyed by fiat currency.

November elections - Things will still suck, but Dems will use things like BP, war and that old "failed Bush policies" to basically blame everything on Republicans and cite the need for MORE government/MORE regulation (since that would have prevented the financial crisis, right? LOL). Anyway, I don't think Dems will get slaughtered like they should, might be marginal changes.

...and now for some of my predictions...

- Growing ire over obscene public worker pensions bankrupting municipalities

- Calls for bailouts of municipalities to forestall bankruptcy (See Harrisburg and much of California on the brink now)

- Outsourcing (contractors) will continue to supplant permanent workers

- Corporate profits may actually continue to improve given unprecedented productivity gains from the recession (they've realized they don't need the workers they per given output)

- Euro will fail. They can't win. If aggressive austerity is implemented, it stunts growth. If not, defaults - the shorts will slaughter them. There's no way out.

Hi Sam,
Sorry, just found this comment since it's a new domain and had to approve manually - but to your question...

Did I say that? I dunno, maybe I did. But that sub-10% tax rate is Federal tax only remember (add on state, local, FICA, etc). And that's after tons of deductions - like a sizable home mortgage interest deduction, 3 kids getting child tax credit, business expenses, etc. So, am I working the system? I don't think so. I'm easily paying more to the federal government than the share I receive - in light of the fact that close to 50% of Americans don't pay a dime - and in many cases, actually get credits. So, I have no qualms about our family's contribution.

But the article was really about her notion that somehow Brazil's (current) high tax rate is responsible for their (perceived) success. Look how well lavish spending and high taxes is working out for Europe right now. Theres just gotta be more skin in the game for all involved and not just the top 10% of earners fronting the bill for the rest of the country - because it's too easy to keep running up the debt and spending when it's not on your tab, right?