IntenseDebate - Pepper

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's Common... · 0 replies · +1 points

It really is the only possible outcome isn't it?

No deal can't happen.
May's deal is dead in the water.
May won't change her red lines so the EU can amend the deal.
EU will only extend A50 with a GE or leadership change and the leadership change is now 100% out of the picture.
Second referendum widely ruled out.

With a GE, if she wins there's a chance to discard the DUP/ get rid of certain troublemakers within the party, make sure yes-men are the candidates in all marginals. If she loses the result will be Labour/ SNP and SNP will force them to 2nd ref & Remain. Then ride the "labour stopped brexit" backlash to victory in 2024, or before then if Labour's minority government can be forced out.
It does require a gamble that a Labour majority won't happen, but there's never a completely safe option with these things.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's Common... · 0 replies · +1 points

If no deal happens, we're not looking at something trivial like 20 points behind.

Probably more like riots to be honest. No fresh produce in the supermarket, alcohol and cigarettes spike in price, people in the country are on the brink as it is, it takes a lot more hardship to push the UK public into action, but they go further once they do.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's Common... · 1 reply · +1 points

I took notice of the letter of what she said as well. She has quite possibly played them all for fools in a tactical masterstroke. The exact phrasing was indeed that she would not stand in the *2022* general election.

She said nothing about elections before 2022.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's Common... · 0 replies · +1 points

The problem is, by voting for a party that you agree with, you often have to vote for an MP you disagree with who isn't fit for the job. Too many new-labour-esque yes-men parachuted into safe seats via nepotism. Only so far it can go before the rot sets in.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: North Korean ov... · 0 replies · +1 points

EU doesn't need to do anything, they have us on a leash now.

The confidence vote was the last chance for sanity to prevail. Now we're headed straight for no deal, economic ruin and Corbyn picks up the pieces in 2022.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - A cry of rage against ... · 0 replies · +1 points

Well, maybe that's the real bias, in favour of neoliberal centrism (EU, Blair, Lib Dem etc.). The centrist groupthink mentality allows everything to be neatly wrapped up in consensus without offending anyone and maintaining lip service to impartiality while actually being wedded to a political position that no-one on the right or left wants anymore.

I'm not sure what their agenda is, but it's probably the one that suits them personally, the idea of them being impartial and working in the interests of the country is definitely false.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Iain Dale: Why is May ... · 0 replies · +1 points

The Express exists solely to make pensioners scared of the weather, health conditions and immigrants. Garbage rag in the same category as the Mirror, just on the right instead of the left.

If you want real news, look online and take a large bowl of salt and an open-yet-critical mind with you.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Iain Dale: Why is May ... · 0 replies · +1 points

When your enemies are fighting, you stay back, you don't throw yourself in the middle.

Corbyn has nothing to gain from getting involved in the May vs. ERG/ DUP spat, and a lot to gain from sitting back and watching it reach its inevitable messy conclusion next week.

There is nothing positive at this point, disaster is inevitable, we're too far into the quicksand to get out.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Iain Dale: Why is May ... · 0 replies · +1 points

The answer is easy - to invoke the Corbyn boogeyman and remind the MPs on her side of her "my deal or Corbyn government" statement. It's an appeal to party loyalty which is doomed to fail considering she's already talking about a 2nd vote on it if the first doesn't go her way.

As John Major was 100% right about, only people on the losing side ask for a TV debate in the first place, people on the winning side don't. In 2017 with Labour 24 points behind, Corbyn was keen for the TV debate, and its easy to see why, if it had happened we'd probably be looking at a Lab/SNP coalition right now.

And right now, Corbyn is looking very relaxed and smiling a lot in interviews whereas May looks defensive and ready to bite some heads off. The body language alone shows who has the upper hand in this. She isn't media polished in the way that Cameron was, it has always been a major flaw with her time as PM, even if things are awful, you have to look like you're keeping it together.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Green: Immigrat... · 5 replies · +1 points

Brexit will simply result in more immigration from Africa and the Carribean, instead of the EU.

If we really want to tackle immigration, we need to increase UK native birth rates (currently in steep decline), and that isn't going to happen unless we build a lot of homes and massively reduce house prices. No-one has kids in rentals where you can be kicked out with 2 months notice, people who expect to have grandkids might want to have a think about that. All countries need a pool of young labour for the workforce, it has to come from somewhere.

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