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3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Ben Roback: What do Bi... · 0 replies · +1 points

Let us see, Biden certainly has his work cut out for him!

3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - 100,000 dead · 0 replies · +1 points

Influenza is more mortal to younger age groups than Covid. There are very large similarities between Influenza and Covid pathology, despite them being very different from a genetic perspective.

Ultimately despite our wish to control SARS-CoV 2, that will be impossible. If you look at the global case map for Covid, you will notice huge swathes of the globe where there is little or no surveillance, testing for it what so ever. Usually in poorer countries with low median ages, where it poses little threat relative to other pathogens.

It will continue to evolve in those regions regardless of what the rest of the world does. Then spread back via illegal migration, freight and even via animal carriers. Even if elimination was possible in the countries it now has a foothold.

I firmly believe vaccination is unlikely to provide any kind of solution for several years at least. Even anti virals might end up being more viable.

I believe there is little or nothing we can do here other than co-exist and deal with the consequences of that. A laissez faire approach is the only viable one.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Don’t stereotype ant... · 1 reply · +1 points

It's normal to be cautious to be taking a vaccine that is still undergoing its phase 3 trial. The primary completion date of the Pfizer study isn't until August 1, 2021 and the whole study won't be complete until January 29, 2023.

Very large difference between being cautious about essentially joining the trial phase and being an anti vaxxer.

The main risk in the broader sense is that the vaccine doesn't work and wastes several billion more in the process.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Johnson strives... · 0 replies · +1 points

The logistics are just one issue. The trial didn't even finish yet!

There are huge questions about all the medical aspects of the trial which need to be answered.

The reaction to what is a trial and a candidate have been as ridiculous as the reaction to SARS-CoV-2 generally.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - David Gauke: If Johnso... · 0 replies · +1 points

As we've seen with the furlough extension, if there is a deal it could be done at the last minute.

Businesses are not even remotely prepared for customs checks and / or tarrifs with the EU from 1st of January. If there is a deal, a trade implementation period would be a no brainer?

The larger issue remains, will any deal, having signed the WA be worth having? The EU can just offer us an abysmal deal and wait for us to crack. What leverage is there to do anything about it?

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Sunak announces... · 0 replies · +1 points

No surprise here, the government think the recovery from Covid will actually be able to begin then. That is also how long lock down will last for roughly. There were still 4 million or so on furlough at 31/10. Most would have been unemployed by Christmas.

Can see why they extended it...

They're deluded in my view, things will improve with the seasons. Back to Covid square one by this time next year. They're increasing the long term damage both with this lockdown and by racking up more borrowing to pay for it.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Raab on Spain -... · 0 replies · +1 points

Indeed. Sars cov 2 is like influenza, not sars cov 2003. Lockdown is totally the wrong approach. The only solution is population level immunity.

The media and government are actually the problem here. Terrifying everyone and dragging the initial waves out, probably for years

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Johnson unveils... · 1 reply · +1 points

They will open everything right in to the jaws of the tiger?

I find it really amazing how stupid the government seemingly are and how poor the scientific advice must be to come to the descisions they've made.

Maybe it's a kind of mass self delusion? Everything we've done will be shown to be both totally pointless and in fact probably counterproductive within 6 months.

Sars cov 2 isn't going anywhere, as soon as we hit winter, temperature drops, much less sun and vitamin D, we're forced to spend time inside, it'll let rip again. Most importantly, it's almost certainly not vaccinable. So there isn't really any choice, nor has there ever been.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Gove is right: wearing... · 5 replies · +1 points

Masks are a medical issue.

For sars cov 2003, an entirely reasonable and sensible way to get it burn out. It had 100% symptomatic transmission, CFR of 10%, so masks worked. Burnt out in a few months.

Sars cov 2 is totally different, highly aggressive asymptomatic spreading virus, CFR of less than 1% (and that will continue to fall), non vaccinable because our immune system sees it as a glorified cold virus. So any vaccine would need to be changed and topped up every few months.

It's already endemic in huge portions of the world. It'll keep spreading until we give up trying to control it and let nature sort it out. Population level immunity must be allowed to develop. For 99%+ of the population it's no more dangerous than a cold. Some countries have surveiled it well enough to show how mild it actually is.

The alternative is a futile multi year battle that cannot be won. The side effects of that politically and economically will be utterly disastrous.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Roderick Crawford: Alm... · 0 replies · +1 points

We gave up when we signed the modified WA. Making all these concessions before any trade deal was a huge mistake.

We should have walked and negotiated from a position of strength.

After everything we've seen recently, this government is terrified of any risk how credible do we think it is that we now just walk away...?

For me it's all theatre and a deal will be agreed or maybe already has been...

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