blessedmaggie
63p256 comments posted · 12 followers · following 0
3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The relaxation of lock... · 0 replies · +1 points
3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The relaxation of lock... · 1 reply · +1 points
3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The relaxation of lock... · 0 replies · +1 points
3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The relaxation of lock... · 0 replies · +1 points
3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Rama Thirunamachandran... · 1 reply · +1 points
3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Rama Thirunamachandran... · 0 replies · +1 points
3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Rama Thirunamachandran... · 3 replies · +1 points
3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Robert Halfon: I'm not... · 0 replies · +1 points
3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Robert Halfon: I'm not... · 0 replies · +1 points
1. If its so terrible for children's mental health to not be in school, how have we managed to have at least 6 weeks of summer holidays for as long as any us can remember in theUK, 8 weeks in France, 11 weeks in the USA with seemingly no ill effects?
2. He does not recognise that past the age of about 13, at least 95% of what he and his colleagues in education have caused to be taught in schools is irrelevant to most pupils. They will never use it again. If this year children do not learn to manipulate cosines and quadratic equations quite as well as previous years' students, or do not learn french irregular verbs quite as thoroughly, it will make absolutely no difference to anything as they will never use that knowledge, it is mostly useless to them. The small proportion of pupils who go on to study science, medicine and engineering will anyway keep up.
3. I have quite easily home schooled my daughter remotely (before the school got its act together) using a mobile phone, and as far as I can see that is how the vast majority of her friends get their lessons communicated from the school. The teacher simply photographs the work and sends it out. All this stuff about laptops and broadband being essential is tosh from the out of touch.
4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Daniel Hannan: We need... · 0 replies · +1 points
Objectively, the costs of what has been spent so far should be regarded as 'sunk' costs, we should only look forward.
If we take one extreme scenario, of taking minimal measures to contain the virus and resigning ourselves to it mostly working through the population, a fair estimate is maybe 300,000 premature deaths, with an average loss of about 5 years of life. Using the figure of £30,000 per year of quality life as being the valuation we make in other healthcare calculations, this would 'cost' £45 billion.
Lockdown cost 20% of GDP in the first quarter, with GDP of £2200, billion I calculate that means full lockdown costs £37 billion a month in lost output.
The August level of lockdown resulted in GDP being down 9% , that equates to £16.5 billion a month.
Thus many months of these restrictions would exceed the £45 billion value we place on this 'lost life' in other healthcare scenarios. However, if the restrictions are only in place a couple of months, then a testing/track/trace regime plus vaccination means they can be lifted then going forward they are worth it, using the criteria we use in other health care scenarios.
I think we can debate whether £30,000 is the right number, or if there are also other factors, but surely some numbers based objectivity is needed? Its not just a question of simply money v lives, because we could spend the money on 'saving lives' in other ways, which might ( or might not) give us a better outcome than spending it on 'lockdowns'.