Concur 100%. Once his opinion on Windsor was known, he had no path to voting with the majority in Obergefell. I stated such, like you, and said the only flip I could have seen is him voting with Windsor and flipping against Obergefell. Once the vote against Windsor was made, the deal was sealed.
My last few times crossing the pond (i.e. Atlantic Ocean), I haven't had the wifi. I can only hope that it's on the plane and at 10am EDT I can log on and watch SCOTUSblog to read Amy say that Lyle said Justice Kennedy has the option for the court in Obergefell.
Of course I had to go look! I think I need to plan a trip to that Pride in the near future.
Two previous "landmark" gay rights cases were delivered by the court - Lawrence v. Texas in 2003 and Windsor v. United States in 2013 - on the same day: June 26th! And now, on June 26th, the SCOTUS will release opinions in one or more of the 5 cases that remain. Is Justice Kennedy going to have a triple play writing three landmark opinions and have them all be delivered on the same month/day of the year???
Ugh, I'm going to be on a plane from Paris, France, to Miami, FL, during the 10am ET decision announcements.
17 opinions left to release in the Oct14 SCOTUS Term. We have 2 from Jan, 5 from Feb, 4 from March, and 6 from April left to dole out. So who wants to predict how many get release tomorrow at 10am ET? I don't see how this wraps up on Monday, June 29th. I expect not only a M-W-F next week, but a Monday and Wed-or-Thurs the following week, so still done before the start of the 4th of July weekend on 7/3.
5-4 with the Chief in the minority.
I fully expect Monday and Thursday this week and next week at least. If that happens, it is five days of opinions (15th, 18th, 22nd, 25th, & 29th) with an average of 4 per day to disposition the 20 remaining cases. I could easily see an July 2nd added for a final day.
Only one opinion released by SCOTUS yesterday (classic Scalia "blistering" dissent), leaving 20 cases left in the term with only three remaining declared days for opinions. Based on previous years, the Clerk announces additional days at the end of the week for the following week. Given this being a one opinion week. I expect we have two days of opinions for the next two weeks and close up on Momday, June 29th as expected.
His should just say: I told you so.
Some of these cases were just argued in April. I can see an instance where we have only 3 opinions produced this Monday, thereby increasing the number needed weekly to close out by Monday, June 30th. I just see some additional opinion days added at this point. The Thursday conferences are adding cases for the fall, no oral arguments or voting, just a lot of time editing opinions and dissents.
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Opus