An interesting speculation about the future of Europe.

Brexit, Bluster and the Birth of the United States of Europe -
https://www.fairobserver.com/region/europe/brexit...

Thank you for your reply. I agree with you that a cross-party government of national unity would essentially be a pro-Remain government which would seek to maintain much of the EU structure, including the single market, the customs union, the ECJ and free movement. This could be achieved via a Withdrawal Treaty and a largely EU-dictated end-state deal or it could be done by remaining in the EU which would include a British seat on the European Council and representation in the European Parliament. The new government might worry about not respecting the 2016 referendum result by remaining in the EU, so their preferred option might be to organise another referendum to decide between these two options. Alternatively they might seek democratic validation through a general election although I think this less likely. At the end of the day, as you rightly observe, it will come to a bi-polar choice between the EU framework and "no deal". The problem for "no deal Brexiteers" is that they don't have a majority in this Parliament and the reason they don't is because of pro-European Conservatives. This relatively small group of politicians will therefore have to decide Britain's economic fate for many years to come. I suspect they will have a good number of sleepless nights before they do so.

Not all Conservatives in Britain are equally sanguine about a "no deal Brexit" or even a hard Brexit. Many share Margaret Thatcher's commitment to the single market. If it comes down to a straight choice between "no deal Brexit" and the economic status quo (inside or outside the EU), these Conservatives will be the ones who decide our country's fate. In the ensuing political crisis anything could happen, including a cross-party coalition of national unity including pro-single market Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Remember 1931 and Ramsey MacDonald.

It is important that all Conservatives understand the bi-polar nature of the choice which will soon confront our newly-elected MPs. The hard-line Brexiteers in the party are correct that the EU-27 will not "negotiate" with us in any meaningful way - they will simply offer us an extension of the European status quo if we wish it, either with or without us having a seat on the European Council. The alternative will be the economic cliff-edge.

John McDonnell is correct that there is no majority in this Parliament for the cliff-edge. Knowing this to be true, the hard-Brexiteers then rely on the ticking clock of Article 50 and their own leverage in the Conservative Party to prevent this Conservative/DUP government from signing up to any kind of Withdrawal Treaty and "transition deal" which the EU might conceivably offer. They know the legislature alone cannot revoke or extend the Article 50 notice. They also know that the legislature alone cannot itself negotiate a "transitional deal" acceptable to the EU-27. Hence at the end of the day the majority in Parliament determined to stop the cliff will be forced to take control of the executive branch via the formation a cross-party coalition government to conduct the negotiations.

Theresa May could lead this government herself if as a previous supporter of EU membership she chooses to accept the EU-27's dictated terms, relying on cross-party support to isolate the hard Brexiteers. If she won't do it, somebody else will have to do the job, as in the scenario described in the article below. Incidentally, it doesn't have to be Vince Cable who becomes Prime Minister. It could be any pro-European MP from the Conservative Party or Labour Party acceptable to the other members of the coalition government.

British Politician Vince Cable Could Lead a Government of National Unity

- https://www.fairobserver.com/region/europe/britis...

Actually something has to happen. Maybe we need a cross-party coalition of MPs to sort out this mess before it is too late.

British Politician Vince Cable Could Lead a Government of National Unity

- https://www.fairobserver.com/region/europe/britis...

The red faces of the most ardent Brexiteers are easy to imagine. Their dream would be shattered by our sovereign Parliament, by MPs freshly elected for a full five-year term. Parliamentary sovereignty is what the Brexiteers promised and parliamentary sovereignty is what they will get. There is no majority in this Parliament for a cliff edge exit from the EU and it certainly wasn't what Leave campaigners promised in the referendum campaign.

The cliff edge scenario is looking increasingly likely with every passing month. If this government cannot succeed in negotiating a rational deal with Europe, a new government based on a cross-party coalition may be required to prevent the cliff. Some Conservative MPs will then be faced with a terrible choice - whether to put country first or party first. The article below explains one way this coalition might arise:-

British Politician Vince Cable Could Lead a Government of National Unity

- https://www.fairobserver.com/region/europe/britis...