IntenseDebate - ElJudgey

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Trump's speech ... · 3 replies · +1 points

The insanity of the rioters will win it for Trump, no question. What is more interesting is what will happen in the Senate and Congress?

Even more important is what will be the actions of individual Americans over the next few years with regards residency. I am afraid it is now inevitable there will be greater polarisation of US society with a general move out of Democrat to Republican areas on the basis of pure safety.

We could get separation/segregation by default.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Rob Sutton: When a Cor... · 1 reply · +1 points

The 3 line entry WHO format Death Certificate was a problem before Covid: the virus has just highlighted an existing problem of ascribing the correct cause of death when co-morbity is involved.

A specific register of covid only deaths would be more than useful but that does not seem to be available or is not published.

I'm afraid I am concerned at the general reliability of NHS/ONS data and how it is presented It would be useful to have a more upto date estimate of the UK's population for a start. Sadly, data has been politicised for years now.

I can't see an easy way out of it.

Good article by the way. Can I suggest to Rob Sutton that he examine and research how data is collected and tabulated at source. Interesting how data at the micro level compares with the same data when extrapolated to the macro level.

Just a thought.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Sunak whistles in the ... · 1 reply · +1 points

Let us be honest: if a "second wave" of the virus hits the global economy in the the late Autumn then all economic analysis collapses. A second "lock-down" would be a mortal blow for the economy yet many will demand such a lock-down regardless of the economic consequences. The UK situation would be mirrored in the US and and the EU.

Macron said: " We are at war with the virus"

Consider this war as equivalent to a medieval attack by a Mongol horde. We have barely survived one devastating attack: if they come back again, we are finished.

Rishi is just crossing his fingers. I think we all know that in honesty. Let's just hope the Gods are on our side this coming Winter.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - David Gauke: The Prime... · 0 replies · +1 points

..et tu, David?

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Michelle Lowe: We need... · 1 reply · +1 points

Point of Correction:

Michelle Lowe did not stand as the Conservative candidate for Coventry South in last year's election. She did stand as a candidate in the 2017.

Mattie Heaven was a late choice for the Conservatives in Coventry South in last year's election. Mattie did her best but failed to win the seat by just 201 votes. Her narrow defeat has allowed the Momentum candidate, who's name I will not mention, to voice her unpleasant ideology in parliament.

It was an extremely sad day for both Coventry and the country. Conservatives at both the local and national level should not allow this to happen again.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Bernard Jenkin: Keepin... · 0 replies · +1 points

Thanks, will check out.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Bernard Jenkin: Keepin... · 0 replies · +1 points

Agree

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Bernard Jenkin: Keepin... · 4 replies · +1 points

A realistic appraisal of the options available. My only critique is that the data in Safra paper on which much of the article is based may now be viewed as overly negative with regards mortality rates. Reliable Icelandic data is now paints a much more optimistic picture on mortality rates. https://www.covid.is/data The 250K UK death total first postulated is now greatly reduced. I am afraid the alternative options presented to a "surrender" policy are little better than death by a thousand cuts. Maybe it is time to realise humbly that Man can not beat Nature. Better to to accept the short pain than the long drawn out agony.

4 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Caroline Elsom: We cal... · 2 replies · +1 points

My own back of an envelope figure was 25% of GDP. This is a war and such high figures should be seen in comparison to previous international conflicts. Assuming a 3 year long conflict then I expect Government debt to rise to to near 200% of GDP. Bif, but not unmanageable. All conventional economics are out of the window. It will be a Command economy where Financial/Economic survival is what counts. I expect the the real financial hits will come with the first major European bank failures, which are sadly inevitable. What should be done if the Euro starts to unravel is beyond imagination.

I hope Sunak, I hope Boris, I hope the country is up to it.

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