en-us https://www.intensedebate.com/users/299019 Comments by rknott http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/06/15/market-update-and-new-positions-ung-uso-din/#IDComment24711947 A- In light of your additions to GLD, do you basically disagree w/ the points made by Katsenelson in his article at MSN today on 5 reasons to avoid the gold bug? I do know that after gold hit $800 in 1980 on fear and inflation concerns, it was a horrible investment for the next 20 years, regardless of fear, gulf war, inflation scares, or whatever. I'm real happy about a bunch of Eagles I bought in early '01 for under $300 each in a scrap exchange, but I sold some last year, and I wonder why gold is once again being looked at as a hedge against inflation or global turmoil, or is it? Does ease of purchase through GLD have a lot to do w/ the run-up? Thu, 18 Jun 2009 19:08:27 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/06/15/market-update-and-new-positions-ung-uso-din/#IDComment24711947 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/06/02/performance-update-since-inception/#IDComment23279188 A- Okay. I admit it. My inner child was having a hard time resisting the desire to be able to look at my porfolio and see MOO COW there. Now that you sold MOO today, maybe I can start to see more clearly. Maybe. Thu, 4 Jun 2009 03:59:21 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/06/02/performance-update-since-inception/#IDComment23279188 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/06/02/performance-update-since-inception/#IDComment23230450 "why and with what catalyst. (or cowalyst in this instance) " Can I be the first to say, "HOLY COW!, Andrew has coined a new term!" I said, "At some point don't hog and cattle numbers/supply start to be the main factor in a turn around?" I guess in the futures market, the real trick would be in predicting when the shortage begins, not recognizing it when it already starts. Although a reversal is not absolutely guaranteed, it's hard to imagine that it won't happen at some point, no? Wed, 3 Jun 2009 20:47:47 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/06/02/performance-update-since-inception/#IDComment23230450 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/06/02/performance-update-since-inception/#IDComment23201351 A- Of course, I guess the question on SAFM then centers on whether the good news has already been substantially factored in to the price of the stock, no? Up 66% since Feb. low by my calculation, and a big pop in the last week from strong earnings report. Side note- It's share price today is almost exactly it's share price one year ago. As far as I know, you don't get swine flu from eating pork, like mad cow from eating contaminated beef. But, I understand the public panic issue is never rational. However, how much of that has already factored in to the downside for hogs? Hogs are only about 1/3 of COW, I think. At some point don't hog and cattle numbers/supply start to be the main factor in a turn around? I have no idea what that looks like at this point. Wed, 3 Jun 2009 17:06:58 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/06/02/performance-update-since-inception/#IDComment23201351 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/06/02/performance-update-since-inception/#IDComment23196105 Andrew- How much do you consider downside risk vs. upside potential when choosing investments? For exampe, I know you have been positive on commodities related to the fact that "people have to eat", and other factors. While some of the Ag related ETF's have done well this year, the livestock market has continued a downward slide, at least looking at COW, which is basically cattle and hog futures markets. In fact, it has been on a steady decline for 12 mo. Do you try to look for investments that may be nearing the point of little downside risk, assuming you feel like you can reasonably gauge that? Wed, 3 Jun 2009 15:31:23 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/06/02/performance-update-since-inception/#IDComment23196105 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/03/17/markets-are-we-too-pessimistic/#IDComment17184733 Andrew- Just find it interesting that VTI is off over 13% ytd and VWO/ emerging mkts. is only down 3.5% ytd. Is that saying anything significant about global recovery or is that a reflection of the fact that emerging markets took too big a hit last year in the meltdown? Wed, 18 Mar 2009 13:26:30 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/03/17/markets-are-we-too-pessimistic/#IDComment17184733 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/03/13/friday-stress-relief/#IDComment16987985 "Put you Ask up in the air, make your trades like you don't care!" Sun, 15 Mar 2009 12:45:33 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/03/13/friday-stress-relief/#IDComment16987985 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/03/11/portfolio-update-buysshorts/#IDComment16883740 Andrew, or anyone-- I have been watching for a comment on what happened in February when UCO fell off a cliff, and USO took a beating also, but hasn't stayed down to the extent that UCO has as oil prices recovered some. UCO seemed in Jan to have a floor around $10, and then after falling off the cliff in Feb., it struggles to get back above $ 8 even though we have seen oil in the upper $40's some days. Did I miss a post on this? If not, can someone explain the behavior? rk Sat, 14 Mar 2009 02:13:28 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/03/11/portfolio-update-buysshorts/#IDComment16883740 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/27/update-exm-ceo-resigns/#IDComment16102964 yesterday's action sure would concur w/ the idea of staying away for now. since I already own a lot of preferreds, the choice becomes A- sell at a huge loss on the face value, or B- hang on, keep drawing the dividend, and hope the economy recovers before massive bankrupcies/defaults totally wipe me out. If that doesn't happen, it's a lot of short term pain, but turns out okay in the end. There really hasn't been anyplace to hide lately, but in cash or FDIC insured investments, has there? Well, gold, I guess, unless you bought at $1000/oz. But, I have a hard time not remembering that for over 20 years, from 1980-early 2000's, gold was a terrible investment, but it didn't stop the gold bugs from continually touting it as a safe haven. Tue, 3 Mar 2009 11:20:15 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/27/update-exm-ceo-resigns/#IDComment16102964 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/27/update-exm-ceo-resigns/#IDComment15931224 Sorry for another reply, but I should have mentioned that the board "can" decide to withhold a dividend on a preferred, and that is also a risk. If it's a cumulative preferred, they still owe you the money, but that does not mean that you will ever see it. Strong companies do not have a history of withholding the dividend, but before late 2008, the shares did not have a history of trading at steep discounts either. If a company withholds a preferred dividend, it's in deep yogurt! rk Sat, 28 Feb 2009 17:16:31 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/27/update-exm-ceo-resigns/#IDComment15931224 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/27/update-exm-ceo-resigns/#IDComment15930479 If you could stomach even looking at a so called "good" bank preferred, you might check out JPM, WFC, & USB. I swore that I would not add any banks, but I didn't own WFC and stuck my toe in the water last week at a 40% discount to par and a 13 % yield. Still crazy after all these months. rk Sat, 28 Feb 2009 16:52:02 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/27/update-exm-ceo-resigns/#IDComment15930479 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/27/update-exm-ceo-resigns/#IDComment15930141 Not to give any recommendation, broth, but you can lock in a dividend with a preferred, but most of the preferred stock is issued by banks and other financial instituitions. However, I noticed that after releasing last qtr results yesterday that Public Storage (PSA) was up almost 6% on a bad day. So, the street must have liked what they heard. The 7 % PSA preferred that I own could have been picked up at a 30% discount to issue par/callable price yesterday. It's effective yield was 10%, and, of course, that cannot be reduced. So , the gamble is bankruptcy, and further loss of face value and the need to sell below what you paid for it, but not a gamble on the dividend yield. Some say that PSA is a good bet to remain profitable since foreclosures require a lot of people to move in to apartments or rentals and they just can't part with the stuff they have accumulated, so they store it. Food for thought. rk Sat, 28 Feb 2009 16:41:17 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/27/update-exm-ceo-resigns/#IDComment15930141 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/25/briefing-economic-insight/#IDComment15874823 Andrew- Okay, can you explain how this C announcement affects small individual investors who hold C preferreds? What I read at MarketWatch this morning led me to believe that my dividends would be suspended. If that is so, how come my shares in CPRW are up about 18% this morning? They're still pathetic compared to the cost, but what's up w/ all this? Mine are cumulative, but some of the non-cumulative C preferreds are up 40-70% this morning! Explain? Fri, 27 Feb 2009 16:00:06 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/25/briefing-economic-insight/#IDComment15874823 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/23/weekly-performance-update/#IDComment15685884 Andrew- I am interested in your comments on UCO. It seemed that even when oil had fallen to the mid-$30's range back in January that the floor on UCO had stayed in the $10 range, but I remember one particular day, was the Feb. 13th(?), that oil moved up and UCO had a large move down, and it had already fallen well below what seemed to be a previous floor. It seemed like a disconnect from the trading price for oil. So, looking forward to hearing what you say on this subject. Mon, 23 Feb 2009 15:47:51 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/02/23/weekly-performance-update/#IDComment15685884 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/26/weekly-economic-calendar/#IDComment14397616 Well, I woke up momentarily last fall and realized that I was in as bad shape on my preferreds as I was on a lot of my stock funds. That put me in the position of selling at a huge loss, or hoping the bank bail out came through and saved my ass. I chose the latter, and still not convinced that the big banks and brokers would go under, I took a look at PFF and said, "Hey, it's down almost 40% , about like a lot of my stock funds, but yielding about 10%", so I sold some stocks and plowed that in to PFF enrolled in DRIP (10/14---11/13/08). Can I plead insanity now, or just stupidity? At various times it has looked encouraging, only to get dashed again. Wed, 28 Jan 2009 00:29:29 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/26/weekly-economic-calendar/#IDComment14397616 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/26/weekly-economic-calendar/#IDComment14397541 Andrew-- This quote makes your PGF buy today look like a good call: " Financial stocks jumped Tuesday evening after a report that the government is creating a plan to buy up toxic assets from firms in an effort to stabilize the shaky banking system" After hours PGF, + 5.4 % and PFF, + 7.89% Believe me, I hope this holds on a personal level, because I started to pick up some preferreds in late '06 and by late '07 had bought a LOT of them. Of course, top investment grade by research at quantumonline, and those rating agencies I came to learn might as well issue their ratings on toilet paper, right? more: Wed, 28 Jan 2009 00:24:56 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/26/weekly-economic-calendar/#IDComment14397541 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/23/weekly-update-keeping-it-positive/#IDComment14282602 Andrew- Huh? I don't get it. If you have oversupply, why is March oil continuing to go up, instead of heading toward the recent levels around the mid-30's per barrel that we saw on the Feb. contracts? Especially, since demand is not expected to rebound until late this year or next year? This article says that contango is an indicator of oversupply, but why? Supplies rising 4 times more than forecast and the price continues to go up and is expected to be higher in April than March, based on the futures? To my brain, this all seems to be counter to the law of supply and demand. There was a bump up on the day the Feb. contracts expired, which I heard was short covering, but isn't the rise in March oil since then a surprise in light of the supply numbers? Is SCO tempting at this point? Sat, 24 Jan 2009 08:51:39 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/23/weekly-update-keeping-it-positive/#IDComment14282602 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/23/weekly-update-keeping-it-positive/#IDComment14282599 From Bloomberg: "Crude-oil supplies rose four times more than forecast to the highest since August 2007 as refineries cut operating rates, the Energy Department said yesterday. . “An indicator that the market possesses inherent strength is its strong performance in the face of bearish information,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy at MF Global Ltd. in New York. The price of oil for delivery in April is $2.74 a barrel higher than for March. This structure, in which the future month’s price is higher than the one before it, is known as contango, and is often an indicator of oversupply. “The contango shows that people expect the economy to be bad for a while,” said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors, an energy consultant in Houston. “It shows they don’t expect demand to rebound until late this year or 2010.” Question to follow. Sat, 24 Jan 2009 08:50:54 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/23/weekly-update-keeping-it-positive/#IDComment14282599 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/10/1st-q-2009-economic-commentary-and-outlook/#IDComment13866163 Andrew- Near the end of your '09 1Q commentary you made the following statement: "we are beginning to see price levels that are concerning for longer maturity U.S. bonds" There has been a lot of talk about a possible bubble in treasuries. And it does make sense to ask, "How low can they go?" before there is absolutely no attraction to the long or intermediate bond, does it not? Looking at the huge climb in TLT and precipitous drop in TBT just since 11/13, I decided to stick my toe in the water and heed the warning of a possible bubble. That was 12/23/08 and I bought TBT at 36.74, I recently added to that, but the original purchase is up about 13.5%, and yes, I do have a trailing stop locking in at least some profit. What I am wondering now is, "does logic say that it is likely for TLT to rise again and TBT go low again if late December was truly just a bear market rally and we are off to test the market lows again in equties?" Or, was there a bubble in treasuries and it has a hole in it that is going to burst wide open regardless of the equity market? Sun, 11 Jan 2009 03:17:33 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/10/1st-q-2009-economic-commentary-and-outlook/#IDComment13866163 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/10/ira-vs-non-ira-account-allocation/#IDComment13850445 Andrew- Am I correct in reading this as about a 65% cash position at this point? Sat, 10 Jan 2009 22:08:20 +0000 http://www.horowitzandcompany.com/tdimg_blog/2009/01/10/ira-vs-non-ira-account-allocation/#IDComment13850445