gdp's Comments

ThePortlander : Portland's Commercial Market: A 2009 Investment Property Update

Wed, 7 Oct 2009 03:23:02 +0000

Great series of posts. Check out what was just Posted on Calculated Risk's Blog (see link and excerpt below) http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/fed-wor... ---------------------------------------------------------------------- WSJ: Fed Frets About Commercial Real Estate http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12548762949556959... .... "Banks will be slow to recognize the severity of the loss -- just as they were in residential," according to the Fed presentation, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. A Fed official confirmed the authenticity of the document, prepared by an Atlanta Fed real-estate expert who is part of the central bank's Rapid Response program to spread information about emerging problem areas to federal and state banking examiners throughout the U.S. While the Sept. 29 presentation by K.C. Conway doesn't represent the central bank's formal opinion, worries about the banking industry's commercial real-estate exposure have been building inside the Fed for months. ... Mr. Conway's presentation painted a bleak picture of the sliding real-estate values and enormous debt that will need to be refinanced in the next few years. Vacancy rates in the apartment, retail and warehouse sectors already have exceeded those seen during the real-estate collapse of the early 1990s, Mr. Conway noted. His report also predicted that commercial real-estate losses would reach roughly 45% next year. Valuing real estate has always been tricky for banks, and the problem is particularly acute now because sales activity is practically nonexistent. ... More than half of the $3.4 trillion in outstanding commercial real-estate debt is held by banks. There is much more in the article, including a discussion on interest reserves masking bad loans (something we've been discussing for a few years) and "extend and pretend". Hy, hoocoodanode. Note: REIS reported today that the apartment vacancy rate in cities hit a 23 year high: From Reuters: US apartment vacancy rate hits 23-year high-report ( http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0... and other CRE categories are also seeing rapidly rising vacancies and falling rents. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Questions: 1. Oregon's UE rate was last pegged at 12.2% about a month ago ... is the lower figure cited here a more recent figure? 2. Within the last week, the national UE rose again ... and is expected to keep rising... can you divine Todd's source of optimism? 3. There has been much written in the past 48 to 72 hours about the state of the consume and their lack of a role in this recession's comeback... how can CRE rebound with the consumer relegated to the sidelines? Thanks in advance!

ThePortlander : Reviewing Portland’s 2009 Retail Strategy

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 22:20:07 +0000

PDX Broker ... you're a commercial broker. Can you opine what is being described as the next bubble. I have to admit, I'm a bit over my skis on this topic. See here for more info: http://www.portlandwaterfront.com/discourse/2009/...

ThePortlander : Reviewing Portland’s 2009 Retail Strategy

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 22:12:23 +0000

Same with my wife. I bought her (albeit now a humble) engagement/wedding rings there. She'd constantly drop by for the same reasons. We lived downtown for a number of years when we were first married back in the 80's (Portland Plaza). We loved it there. Walk every where, feel safe. It was clean, friendly, and devoid of all the crap you find there now. I love the vision that the City has crafted... but the execution is an entirely different matter.

ThePortlander : Reviewing Portland’s 2009 Retail Strategy

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:16:36 +0000

MissDowntown ... you've made my case is spades! For the retailers, it's about a business friendly environment. For shoppers, it's about the experience.

ThePortlander : Atwater Auction: 40 Out of 41 Ain't Bad

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 16:42:14 +0000

Waterfront, baby, waterfront.

ThePortlander : Reviewing Portland’s 2009 Retail Strategy

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 04:59:35 +0000

Hi Jeff, Maybe the Zell Bros example needs a bit more context. Marty Zell and family have been one of Portland's preeminent retailers for decades. On April of this year, KGW described Zell Bros this way: "In every city there are brand names that define the city's retail core. In Portland, Zell Brothers is one of them." Unless I'm mistaken, retailers like ZB are supposed to be a bellwether - not only for the macro economy, but especially so for the localities in which they reside. Servicing HNW and affluent customers are an indirect, yet reliable measure of how well a given municipality is dealing with an economic downturn. Yes, there is an undeniable element of the vertical industry, retail in general and certainly the economy as a whole ... but to loose sight of the fact that one of the city's retail pillars is foundering when there's still plenty of its citizens who can afford to shop there would be to miss a BIG data point.

ThePortlander : Reviewing Portland’s 2009 Retail Strategy

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 04:45:28 +0000

Sorry ... it even made The O: http://blog.oregonlive.com/frontporch/2009/09/top...

ThePortlander : Reviewing Portland’s 2009 Retail Strategy

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 04:27:37 +0000

Zell Bros? Are you kidding me? In your wildest dreams, could you ever envision Marty Zell EVER resorting to this tacit to drive sales? What planet is this ;-)

ThePortlander : Reviewing Portland’s 2009 Retail Strategy

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 02:35:23 +0000

This is a wonderful article, thank you for publishing it. My two cents: Portland seems to always approach things with a task force or committee that largely is ineffectual because they do not have the authority to address and correct the root causes of systemic failure. Case in point: the Mayor's own Downtown Vision Task Force and its Portland Retail Strategy for 2009. Where you point to the achievement of milestones, the results of the strategy are a miserable failure. When Zell Bros has to resort to a "Man on the street with a 40% off sign" then --- Portland, we have a problem. Let me go further and take on those accomplishments -- not as a personal attack -- but to bring another point of view into play. You wrote: "now that September of 2009 is halfway over and 2010 is on the horizon, we can see that many of the action items outlined in the Portland Retail Strategy for 2009 have come to fruition." I disagree that those deliverables you cite are the same as a measurable business outcome (increased sales, profitability, improved vacancy rates, etc). METRO has made and continues to make BILLIONS of dollars of bets with taxpayer money without producing the desired outcomes its promised us. And I believe, its due in part, to our governments inability to distinguish between a deliverable and a quantifiable result/benefit. Should we continue to invest in Retailers in our core downtown area - yes, Yes and YES. However, should we also examine important policies that have an even a greater impact retailer's ability to thrive (tax, social, etc.)? AN EVEN BIGGER YES. Remove the barriers to commerce and give the retailers a business-friendly / customer-friendly environment in which to do business and Portland will have a vibrant downtown retail core.

KATU - Portland, OR : Vancouver, Portland mayors feud over bridge | KATU.com - News - Portland,

Sat, 19 Sep 2009 15:16:08 +0000

Dissecting the mayor's comments and underlying meaning: FEWER LANES = NOT BUILT FOR FUTURE CAPACITY AND WILL LIKELY STIFLE FUTURE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT LIGHT RAIL = $1.7 BILLION IN TAXPAYER DOLLARS SPENT ON A SYSTEM THAT IS UNDERUTILIZED AND WILL NEVER PAY FOR ITSELF AND MORE COST EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVES EXIST NO TOLLS = WHY NOT IF YOU WANT TO USE AN EXPRESS LANE, PAY FOR IT. ITS A SELF-SELECTING REVENUE SOURCE FOR THE REGION'S ECONOMY The Greater Portland Metro/SW Washington area continues to suffer under the leadership that simply will not admit its own failings. UGB, Light Rail, Ariel Tram, Street Cars and other benign sounding concepts have utterly failed to deliver the economic value that we taxpayers were promised. Don't misunderstand me: I love the notion of sleek trains, modern trams and gleaming high rises on the waterfront. But these ultra-expensive projects were suppose to insulate the region from severe recessions. They were suppose to attract new businesses and private investments in the region. Instead we're tied for forth in the nation for the highest unemployment rate and a reputation for being anti-business. It's time to return to fiscal sanity and abandon this failed "build-it-and-they-will-come" mentality. But my concerns run even deeper. Our elected officials are not just taking multi-billion dollar gambles with our money, they've also become dangerously arrogant. Look no further than the Sellwood Bridge Project and you will see these same leaders choosing to exercise their power of eminent domain to condemn homes along the Willamette simply to appease special interest groups. They blatantly ignore viable options that would serve all interests well. They hide behind hollow terms like Community Task Force, but do not invite affected homeowners to join. The hide behind catchy phrases such as Locally Preferred Alternative, when they know those homeowners who would prefer NOT to have their lives destroyed needlessly. Portland: It's Time for a Change. Read more of my thoughts on PortlandWaterfront.com/Discourse

ThePortlander : Portland Tied as Most Frugal City in America

Thu, 17 Sep 2009 04:53:23 +0000

Justin ... great article! In your next article can you make the utterly ironic tie-in between the unemployed and their frugality and the region's drunken spending spree on transit and other wasteful spending? Cheers!

ThePortlander : Oregon Ranks High In Solar

Wed, 16 Sep 2009 03:54:07 +0000

Yep ... Oregon's high alright ;-) We rank high in green herbology (but not in cash or technology). Suntech (largest Chinese Solar Manufacturer) sez Oregon market is too small to locate a plant here: http://portland.bizjournals.com/portland/stories/... Who loves ya' babe!

ThePortlander : Make MAX Better Before Making It Bigger

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 23:27:19 +0000

Hey ... the fast eat the slow ;-) Works in journalism as well as high tech. That's why they call me Mister Quick.

ThePortlander : Make MAX Better Before Making It Bigger

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 22:40:38 +0000

http://blog.oregonlive.com/commuting/2009/09/firs... Pick a seat. Any seat. $575 Million buys a lot of leg room.

ThePortlander : MAX Green Line Means Growth

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 19:12:13 +0000

Did you know: there are 575,930 folks who live in Portland per Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland,_Oregon) That mean, by my math, the $575 Million that TriMet wasted - I mean spent - on the green line is enough to give every man, women and child a $1,000 stimulus check? For as much as we complain about folks buying houses they couldn't afford, should we apply the same standard to our local, state and federal governments ;-)

ThePortlander : #Teamadams: Creative Industry Bill Of Rights ... What The Heck?

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 00:15:35 +0000

Jeff... I suspect you're right. I received a Direct Message from Mayor Sam Adams this morning: "thx for the retweet of Skip but your comments might reflect that the "rights" idea was a pitch to us not vice versa" (Thu Sep 10 11:07 via Direct Message) I tweeted his request to #PDX #Portland, but before hand asked the Mayor this in a DM: "Fair enuf, I will make that distinction for you. Question: does the origin matter if you endorsed it, publicize it?" (Thu Sep 10 11:24 via Direct Message) No reply on that last question yet. But it makes me wonder ... why herald such an announcement to all of Portland via Twitter and then seem to back away from it by saying "it wasn't our idea."

ThePortlander : Lars Larson is Wrong, Again

Tue, 8 Sep 2009 19:36:12 +0000

Completely by coincidence, I happen to catch Lars' comments on this topic while driving between appointments. I'm neither defending Lars or suggesting Jeff is wrong in his editorial ... but rather simply pointing out there was at least one other angle not covered in this article. The point Lars was making at the time that I heard him was this: West Linn School District not only supported the teacher's gender transition (as do I) BUT ... also wanted to turn the matter into a "teaching moment" and explain to the children that gender reassignment is "normal behavior." It was the term "normal behavior" being used in a teachable moment that Lars was laser focused on. It was his position that parents have the right to disagree with the WLSD on the teachable moment issue... that the matter was still up for debate as wether or not the gender reassignment should be characterized as "normal" behavior to school-aged children. I also believe (but my memory is a bit unsure on this point) that Lars cited the fact that the American Psychiatric Association has a body of work entitle Gender Identity Disorders (see: http://www.psych.org/MainMenu/Research/DSMIV/DSMV... for more information ). Again, his point was ... and I'm not defending its validity ... that if the APA officially recognized GID, how could it be taught as "normal" behavior? I strongly believe that Jeff's underlying point of everyone's need to practice tolerance is the right point to make. But in fairness, we need to treat the parents who don't share the views of the WLSD with the same compassion and tolerance that we're demanding of them.

ThePortlander : Restaurant Closures Offer Case Study in Local Business

Sun, 6 Sep 2009 19:26:00 +0000

All good points. I esp agree with your observations re: Pacific Coast Restaurants. Good concepts. Good management.

ThePortlander : Restaurant Closures Offer Case Study in Local Business

Sun, 6 Sep 2009 18:57:55 +0000

Your observations are spot on w/r/t a decline in quality after the acquisition. It's been the topic of many conversations with friends as decide where to dine. Also agree with Lake Oswego Grill. The owners brought what was good about Stanfords and improved upon it. Consistently good food. Consistently good service. Great atmosphere. But while I think your central thesis about an out-of-town company riding into Portland has much merit, it's likely not primary cause of these restaurants demise. The Dussin Group, owners of The Old Spaghetti Factory shuttered three eateries: Lucier (RiverPlace), Blue Sage (LO and West Linn). A shocker for me was the closure of Caprial's in Sellwood. John and Caprial Pence were valued members of the local foodie scene -- authenticate and engaged -- but simply struggled with the economics for years. Again, I'm not dissing your observations, I'm simply suggesting that Portland has a economic sustainability problem. TriMet -- via the Oregonian -- tooted its horn today for spending just over a half billion dollars on it's new Max Green line that runs from Clackamas to Downtown. While I love the notion of sleek trains that whisk riders from point A to point B, I'm not in love with the lack of hard-dollar return on investment. Another way to examine the issue is how much more could accomplish with that $575.7 Million in terms of economic development? Is there a higher return on the taxpayers' equity if that capital was put to work elsewhere? I suspect so (sarcasm dripping). Famed Portland real estate developer Joe Weston made a great observation about the city in yesterday's Oregonian. Here's an excerpt: Q: (Ryan Frank) There's been a lot of talk about a glut of condos in Portland. But the city's skyline is now dotted with shiny new luxury apartment towers. How can a city like Portland support this huge supply of high-rise apartments? A: (Joe Weston) That's a very, very good question because we are not a corporate town and we don't have a huge executive payroll. I don't know how the people currently are paying $2,400 to $6,500 a month for these units. It's a mystery to me. You're looking at a corporate payroll for that of $175,000 a year or more. We just don't have that many jobs in Portland, Oregon, that pay that. Whether or not Joe was absolutely correct regarding executive compensation is not important. His general observation about Portlanders' inability to afford its own goods and services is spot on. With the misery rate at 24%, Portland is simply not able to employ folks full-time and at a living wage so they can afford to eat at those restaurants, rent those shiny new apartments or afford descent health care.

KATU - Portland, OR : Bike corrals bring more customers, carless options | KATU.com - News - Por

Thu, 3 Sep 2009 10:00:10 +0000

Bikes Vs Cars: Who Will Heal This Metaphorical Divide? http://www.portlandwaterfront.com/journal/2009/9/... So I'm watching the 11 o'clock news on KATU -- trying to unwind from a very long but productive (and very enjoyable) day when a story airs about bike corrals. Honestly, I didn't give it a second thought. It started out like every other local human interest story: sunny and upbeat. And although it featured a few seconds on Sam Adams (who I think is an idiot and should do all of us a favor and resign) I watched Jeff Jeager deliver what most would consider a nice, albeit, fluffy feel good story... ... right until Rob Widmer dropped the equivalent of a turd in the punchbowl at a black tie affair: “There are so many people that bike in Portland. If you’re not part of that you’re going to get left behind,” he said. WTF? Is this jackhole for real? Pardon me Mr. Widmer... some of us poor, ignorant taxpayin' folk still need to use our fossil fuel burnin' motorized vehicles to earn a living here in People's Republic of Portland. Apologies for the rant, but what just followed illustrates why our current batch of elected officials and their sycophants really, REALLY need to go. But more importantly, Rob brought to the fore a not to subtle metaphor for all that's ails Portland and Oregon at large. It's easy to suck-up to popular opinion when times are good. It's an entirely different matter to pander to the extreme wings of either political party when the chips are down. Sam and Rob proved that point again tonight. The question remains: do any of the gubernatorial candidates have the sack to stand up to the extremes of their parties and recognize there is more that unite us as Oregonians than divides us? Who will step into the breach and bring us together? We must abandon the divisiveness that has marred our beloved city for too long now. In its place, we need to rekindle Oregon's pioneering spirit and search out those independent-minded, forward-thinking yet fiscally conservative folks who are committed to managing our affairs responsibly. People capable of envisioning a world-class metropolitan core, but who are friendly to businesses that produce living-wage jobs. Visionaries with an eye toward progress, but who understand that whatever investments we make, must return real measurable value back to the community. Leaders who understand that getting too far ahead of ourselves fiscally -- creates not only unnecessary risks, but may likely do irreparable damage to this city (and state) we all love. We need competent leadership who understands that sustainability is more than a slogan -- it's responsible management across all policy venues... such as balancing sound environmental stewardship with current economic realities. Who will step-up and heal this divide?