keith_c

keith_c

37p

46 comments posted · 0 followers · following 0

426 weeks ago @ Macleans.ca - The big gamble · 2 replies · +3 points

Good Geddes piece. He brings up the historic importance of Quebec to Liberal fortunes. Hard to believe that Quebec was 40% of the seats in the House once upon a time, given what's happened to national demographics since. Has anyone studied how much easier the math gets for Harper in 2014 when the new Ontario, BC and Alberta seats come online? 20 new seats of which more than half should go Tory even when they lose elections. I bet Harper sees himself as running down the clock until that day.
Under-covered in this story and many others is Tory strength in the Maritimes, given how recent polls have gone. With the Danny Williams and Bill Casey anger of 2008 dissipating, Tories are well placed to retake traditional Nova Scotia and Newfoundland territory and add 5 more seats nobody's looking at. Crucial in a tight election.

426 weeks ago @ Macleans.ca - The big gamble · 2 replies · +3 points

hilarious. name some of the above `interests' please

427 weeks ago @ Macleans.ca - On the unfortunate fat... · 0 replies · +1 points

but I agree, good to see the back of Pierre Brien

427 weeks ago @ Macleans.ca - On the unfortunate fat... · 1 reply · +1 points

better the chances of winning more than 10 seats but also better the chances of long-term toxic effects if the Mulroney/Charest serum is let back into the party. I don't think Harper wants to owe anyone promises of constitutional change or have a large caucus of goofball obscure backbenchers getting into petty scandals. Better to do the long slog of trying to cultivate a reliable group of "bleu" MPs and voters who actually see eye to eye with Conservative values elsewhere in the country. Even if it takes 10 years in the wilderness.
However, it seems that given the recent Schreiber/Airbus extradition fix that Harper demanded a pound of flesh in exchange from MBM and Charest. I can only imagine that will be some form of sketchy 1984-style ground troops working for Tories in 819/418 ....

427 weeks ago @ Macleans.ca - Nanos: Apparently, hol... · 0 replies · +1 points

Following up on this days later, I'm struck that one of the most under-reported trends in Canadian politics the last five years is the disconnect about how Harper's fortunes in the Atlantic provinces are reported and the polling/ results. The region isn't THAT small, about the same population as Alberta, and with a few more seats than its population warrants, it could be the surprise of the next election in getting Harper a majority.
When I look at polls, it would seem few care about the "culture of defeat" stuff anymore. The Tories now own Harper's ancestral home of New Brunswick . They definitely trail in Nova Scotia but from the way it's written about, you'd think the Tories there were as popular as Liberals in Alberta; instead they run with a strong 30 percent of the vote or so. How has this come to be? for the under-reportage: the decline of the regional press? The Toronto media's disinterest in the region? for the vote trends: the region's pride in the military and social conservatism? The unkind attitude some of the cynical politicos have is that the region's poverty means voters make sure they have some of their guys at the table so they don't miss out, but I am curious if there is more to it.

427 weeks ago @ Macleans.ca - The Interview: Douglas... · 0 replies · +1 points

Hire Coupland as a Macleans columnist!

427 weeks ago @ Macleans.ca - Why we don’t need an... · 0 replies · -1 points

Canadians have said no such thing in their election results, despite your fantasies. They are asked what MP / party they want to vote for. That's it.

428 weeks ago @ Macleans.ca - Nanos: Apparently, hol... · 3 replies · +1 points

a small thing i'd point out on the two PEI ridings Jack mentioned.. aren't those ridings microscopic? like, 20,000 people or something? CPC losing by 3189 there I think is like them losing by 10,000 in an Ontario riding.. so not really that close.. but given how herringchoker is taking us to school here I presume he has more to say. Mad respect for the social anthropolgy.
I wish there was a riding by riding analysis like this in the 905 and Lower Mainland. Tight races with interesting neighbourhood by neighbourhood/ethnic dynamics.

428 weeks ago @ Macleans.ca - Paul Wells on Ignatief... · 2 replies · +4 points

an excellent point that is not written about enough in Canadian discourse. A distinction I would draw re. the Western version of this thinking - many Saskatchewan people will vote NDP or tory/reform/sask party but never Liberal, as the Liberal brand represents the hated eastern power. In this case the "little guy" is Saskatchewan itself. I think a similar dynamic takes place in BC and parts of Manitoba. Paul, your populist-messaging analysis may be more apt for Ontario results in places like Windsor, Hamilton and Oshawa lately where the east-west tension doesn't apply.

Re. Saskatchewan again, Colin Thatcher's autobiography is interesting (no, really! more than OJ's!) as he discusses leaving his beloved Sask Liberal party for the nascent Sask Tories in the late 70s, even though the Sask Liberals were serious people and the Sask Tories were a joke, the Liberal brand was just too tarnished and associated with Trudeau. The Tory brand then was the only way to stop the NDP

430 weeks ago @ Macleans.ca - The ‘No kids’ deba... · 0 replies · +1 points

I didn't say any of those things.. I just find it staggering that some people- people with enough resources to be commenting on an internet news comment board - have such a lack of self belief, such low self esteem that they think if they had a kid, it would end up homeless due to their own unsuitability as parents. The bobbyo comment kind of boggled my mind. I'm just curious if he really feels that way