I think we win this one in one of two ways: either we get on them early and Foles breaks down as he attempts to go downfield or, more likely, we control clock and wear them down on the defensive side, keep them at FGs, and have a game much like Penn State (meaning we slowly break them down).
Mike, you have probably read a good deal from the Arizona press on this game...I am struck by how there is an emerging talking point onthis game not being that big a deal for Arizona's season...Stoops said it, his brother at FSU said it, a player has said it, and come columnists have said it...they seem more focused on the conference and this is just a good test. I sense Stoops is not going to sell his soul to win this particular game. I sense a plan B exists if we come out and just do some physical domination. This QB is all he has and there is very little depth on their team... he is not going to let us kill Foles and thus his season.
Finally, go look at Foles' last 5 games last year. Take out Oregon and he slowly crashed statistically. The burn being Nebraska. I think the defensive folks have figured out Nick Foles.
Uh, well that's interesting. He played alongside a guy who was for my money, better than him...Devon Mitchell. Who played in the NFL and was on several All-America teams. Funny how he forgot that. They both made all-big ten several times.
When you look at 1980 and beyond, Iowa is a safety factory really.
Mike, I read you Marc and Scott as a collective. You certainly do tag team things here and there. You guys are THE Iowa guys at the Gazette. You would have to agree that you guys have been really hitting the superficial stuff hard on this one. Which is fine. I'm an iron sharpening iron type and I am of NYC so you have to go a long way to offend me. In other words, no offense taken.
But I hear you on what you're tyring to do here and I can respect that. My goal is to get you to stick your chest out a bit on this team.
You know you are in good shape when the press in its analysis of what are likely to be a team's most significant hurdles center around game time temperature and time zone change. I guess this game will forever be referred to as the Sundial Game. I'm twiddling my thumbs and whistling the Jeopardy theme song waiting for someone to write one single article about how Iowa will be challenged by...the opponent...you know, the actual team. Not history, the temperature, time zones, Vegas wagering lines and the like. Sheesh.
That ASU team in 2004 went on to a 9-3 season, a decent bowl game and Dirk Kotter got a sniff from some NFL teams. The next year it all started to fall apart though. But make no mistake, Iowa lost in 2004 to a better team, that just happened to be in the desert. Iowa overachieved the rest of that season, getting, Ferentz ironically enough, his own sniffs from the NFL. Bottom line, don't confuse extraneous details with cold hard facts. The better team won in 2004. They lost only to a thoroughly dominant USC team (Nat. Champs) and California (#9 final AP). They also lost thier rivalry game to Arizona, but in that game they outplayed Arizona but had 5 turnovers.
Great insight Scott...thanks! I think Ferentz has grown immensely in road preparation. I think like anyone in any job you get better and better the more you do it. His staff is so stable all but two on it I believe were at that Arizona State game. What is not really factored in here is that Arizona has more than their share of challenges coming into this game and you allude to one...they have not been challenged and thus may not know where they are or even who they are for this new season. But of greater challenge is the fact that Iowa's offense last year will represent about 50-60% of what this year's offense will be. As for the defense, it will be better against the run and about as good against the pass. Unless our LBs really break down the defense is no worse than last year's. Meanwhile, our special teams might be much better. OUr punter will be better, our kickoffs will be longer, our FGs cannot be worse and our return game is MUCH better.
Arizona IS a ranked team. So this qualifies as a very serious game. They are ranked 7 points lower than Miami, Fl. and this is a road game. So logic dictates* this is potentially a more rewarding game than the one Ohio State just played. It is the only game with two ranked teams this weekend I believe. Arizona is not going to be much of a factor in the Pac 10 and for good reason. They have a very suspect defense. It is young with new guys at hugely important positions. I will be very upset if we lose this one. We are better than last year and they are about the same...despite a big upgrade at QB. And we stomped them...
* logic is lost on voters so don't expect much of a bump at all if we win this game.
Ohio State is the most succesful football team in the BCS era. They can afford to lose tough games. Iowa, however, cannot. We need to thread the needle. Especially under Ferentz who is not a guy who will run up the score or do the used car salesman routine that Mack Brown, Bob Stoops and these other guys do in their sleep. It is what it is...so I say keep drumming Iowa State and do your work in the Big Ten. With Nebraska on board and a Championship game, I think we will see more Iowa in BCS games. This team is built for playoff football. Basically, beat Nebraska and you're better than 50/50 to be in that BT CHampionship game...that is until they replace Rich Rod...then you have to find a way to beat Michigan too.
Monte Kiffin had a myocardial infarction when Hawaii lined up the RB directly behind the QB in Pistol formation. And he is one of the best D-Coordinators of the past 25 years college or pro. So I think Ken O'Keefe is sitting in the catbird's seat with this personnel, knowing that Stanzi will likely not be running for his gosh darn life on every pass play, thinking how can I turn this Arizona defense into a pretzel.
Also, Stanzi eating that deep pass yesterday was major progress. In the Indiana game he let that fly....every time.
It is the best of times.
I have not been this excited about Iowa since Ronnie Harmon and Chuck Long were toying with teams in the early to mid-1980s.
No question...this is not a tomato can. They are decent at home. The heat might be factor. I think Arizona has big play ability but their offense is a lot like Iowa State's. Look forward to your analysis.
Oh, and I was directed by one of the chat boards to a quote by Norm Parker from two years ago before we played Illinois where he called the spread offense mostly a fiction. He said that unless the QB really is a part of the running game (Denard Robinson comes to mind) it is merely a one back offense, and that has been a part of football for over 20 years. So I am guessing he will have a plan for Arizona.
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