IntenseDebate - EricPeterson

16 years ago @ sentimenTrader - Indep... - Morning Report - May 1... · 3 replies · +6 points

Jason, I'm wondering about your use of only the closing prices in those charts above. The intraday low on the futures last Thursday was about 50 points lower than the close. If you used full charts (5-minute or tick) instead of just closing-value charts, the retracement from last Thursday has already blown way past 62%.

To Robert: Most of us here are very experienced investors (I've traded stocks, OEX options, futures, options on futures, etc. for 26 years). You're welcome to post your opinions, but please don't put it in the form of advice such as "come on people", ok?

16 years ago @ sentimenTrader - Indep... - Morning Report - April... · 1 reply · +1 points

Jason, you need a new indicator: the number of comments on your Morning Reports! :)

Yesterday must have set a record for number of comments (mostly about how the contrarian indicators just aren't working) and then today we have the biggest down-day since the February lows!

16 years ago @ sentimenTrader - Indep... - Morning Report - April... · 1 reply · +1 points

Jason, you commented that Rydex traders are "shoveling assets into the sector funds" because 85% of sector funds have assets above their 50-day average. But considering that almost every sector has been rallying in price for almost 50 days, couldn't that 85% stat be accomplished without any trading at all by Rydex traders, but just by price appreciation alone?

16 years ago @ sentimenTrader - Indep... - Morning Report - March... · 1 reply · +1 points

Bill, that seems to be a lot to infer about the future from one trading day. :)

16 years ago @ sentimenTrader - Indep... - Morning Report - March... · 0 replies · +1 points

Very thought-provoking table of stats for 21-day tops. It might be interesting to compare the numbers with any random day. The table says all 4 indicators were present on only 20% of the tops. But if for any random day those 4 indicators are present only 10% of the time for example, then that says a day that has those 4 indicators is two times more likely to be a top than any random day. Maybe not helpful for trading decisions, but interesting to know.

16 years ago @ sentimenTrader - Indep... - Morning Report - March... · 0 replies · +1 points

Jason, you wrote:

"Rydex mutual fund traders have felt more comfortable putting money to work, with nearly 80% of sectors now enjoying greater-than-average asset flows." and "just under 80% of them are showing assets that are greater than the average of the past 50 days."

Does this really mean that Rydex traders are putting more money to work? Can't the increase in assets be mostly attributed to the fact that the prices have risen? For example, say that Rydex prohibited all purchases and sales of sector funds during the last 50 days. I bet the assets in those funds would be above their 50-day average for almost every sector, without any action at all by Rydex traders.

16 years ago @ sentimenTrader - Indep... - Morning Report - March... · 0 replies · +1 points

I have a basic timing model based on a weighted average of my ratings of the indicators mentioned above, plus some other indicators from other sources. It didn't go negative on the market until Friday, so it hasn't been negative during the recent multi-week run-up. But it's now much more negative than it was Friday, and it can't get much more negative with the indicators it includes. I've offset all my long stock and mutual fund positions this week with short E-mini futures and short ETFs so that I won't lose anything during a correction.

16 years ago @ sentimenTrader - Indep... - Morning Report - March... · 3 replies · +1 points

Jason, I'm curious why you aren't advocating a small short position at this point. The most popular indicators are all very bearish: Dumb-Smart is at 29%, exceeding the 25% bearish mark. Indicator Extremes are almost in very bearish territory. Rydex Beta Chase is in the red zone. Rydex Bull/Bear Spread was most recently in the red zone. The STEM model is in the red zone for the first time since mid-October. The next 4 or 5 days have a lot of red bars in the seasonality charts at the bottom of the home page. It doesn't seem there could be much more of a confluence of bearish readings in those indicators. The only argument against a short position seems to be the upward momentum.

16 years ago @ sentimenTrader - Indep... - Morning Report - March... · 0 replies · +1 points

Dumb-Smart is about to flash a sell signal. The data for 2008-2009 suggest that on days when Dumb minus Smart is 26% or greater, the SP500's average daily return is negative. Right now it's at 25%. (Readings close to 26% but below it were not particularly bearish).

16 years ago @ sentimenTrader - Indep... - Morning Report - Febru... · 0 replies · +1 points

Jason,

I read every word of your Morning Reports every day because they are always very interesting, and I have a small suggestion. Often the text in the Intermediate Term Outlook and the Equity Market Indicators is unchanged from the previous day. In those cases it would save time to not re-read those. Is it possible to put an asterisk or other mark at the top of those sections to indicate there is something new in the text?

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