All Blog Comments

Fitz - 3/4 Pull As A Reactionary Point

Fitz — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 20:22:00 +0000

Just wondering if the webinar is ready yet??

nobrainertrades - Portuguese Debt Calls Up Euro Price Action

nobrainertrades — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 13:41:48 +0000

Hey mids, There was and good spot. To answer your question, it's more in terms of recognition / awareness. The reason I write many of these articles in this way is to simply highlight points I've come across in the past with struggling traders, or those who "think" they're doing just fine but in fact have some holes that could use filling. Having written to the public for several years now my interactions with traders just keeps growing with numbers so the writing is geared towards getting others to simply recognize these things above anything else. I have seen more than a few chase price into these key levels, try to play the trend right ahead of a major release, underestimating the impact of these types of releases, what the typical reaction is surrounding expectation/realization, etc. Many retail sites don't even have this bond auction listed as a major event today, if that says anything. Talk about watering down the market. I appreciate the questioning of intent with this though; it's next on the FAQ area :).

nobrainertrades - Japan and the US: Two Peas In A Pod?

nobrainertrades — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 13:27:25 +0000

Quickly noted its rare he puts something together like this without any "counter-intelligence", showing the other side of the coin, but it is a compilation that's unique in its own sense. You are certainly not alone in your thought here though.

mids99 - Portuguese Debt Calls Up Euro Price Action

mids99 — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 12:23:59 +0000

It was also a nice retest of the daily trendline which tied in with the spike base level that you've drawn. http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5166/5348406465_5f... Not sure how to use these moments as, like you say, far too risky to trade during the immediate run-up to the results. Is it just a 'theoretical observation' rather than an opportunity ?

Hsan - Japan and the US: Two Peas In A Pod?

Hsan — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 12:19:50 +0000

I don't buy it. The American economy is more dynamic than Japan's. (I'm not American)

@Gerarfx - Take The Easy Ones, And Don’t Do Anything Stupid In The Meantime

@Gerarfx — Thu, 6 Jan 2011 14:33:16 +0000

Thank you very much, good article...have a great year all of you!!!

nobrainertrades - ADP Opens A Can Of WTF

nobrainertrades — Thu, 6 Jan 2011 11:22:36 +0000

Hey David, Liquidity gaps = sharp, racing price with little or no retrace and not necessarily a physical gap. More about it here: http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2010/11/ifo-data-b... (read the comments on that post as well they might be helpful).

David - ADP Opens A Can Of WTF

David — Thu, 6 Jan 2011 11:17:29 +0000

I have a question regarding the gaps. How can you see those gaps, on my chart I can't find any gaps?

mids99 - ADP Opens A Can Of WTF

mids99 — Thu, 6 Jan 2011 09:01:32 +0000

Big number. Goldman and Nomura both put out notes afterwards explaining that the ADP payroll method can be susceptible to end of year discrepancies with December numbers having a track record of producing the biggest 'surprises' relative to expectations. Guess we'll find out for real tomorrow.

nobrainertrades - ADP Opens A Can Of WTF

nobrainertrades — Thu, 6 Jan 2011 08:51:42 +0000

Hi Art, Symmetrical tracing: peak to break, break swing high to target - simply 100% of the leg going into the supply line.

Art - ADP Opens A Can Of WTF

Art — Thu, 6 Jan 2011 08:49:15 +0000

Hi Steve, how did you come up with those targets? Art

ahmed903 - Free Resources for FX Traders, Take 2

ahmed903 — Wed, 5 Jan 2011 13:58:21 +0000

To be honest the website is pretty good. There are alot of good sections that are kinda rusting with not enough content. Working on them would be a good idea. That an the prospect of more tweets would surely excite me.

RENE - Take The Easy Ones, And Don’t Do Anything Stupid In The Meantime

RENE — Wed, 5 Jan 2011 08:14:36 +0000

THIS INSIGHT HAS BEEN SO HELPFUL THAT I WILL ADD IT TO MY TRADING RULES. THANK YOU FOR SHARING YOUR WISDOM. HAPPY NEW YEAR!

bagz - Interactive Platform - All About Euroland

bagz — Tue, 4 Jan 2011 22:54:58 +0000

Fantastic tool, that one's going straight to the favourites :) Have been looking for a simple way to keep an eye on EU bonds and CDS data..

dwt - Take The Easy Ones, And Don’t Do Anything Stupid In The Meantime

dwt — Tue, 4 Jan 2011 15:53:01 +0000

I'll take this article as my introduction to you (via forexfactory). Thanks for the pearls of wisdom.

mids99 - 2010 Closeout...Finding What Clicks In Sporadic Ramblings

mids99 — Tue, 4 Jan 2011 15:00:05 +0000

Happy New Year for 2011 to you as well Steve. I was late in finding this website but I spent the 'holiday' reading every article in the archives and the pdf from the FF thread so hopefully am up to speed now. Bring on 2011.

nobrainertrades - Morgan Stanley Annual FX Review and Forecast

nobrainertrades — Tue, 4 Jan 2011 06:23:40 +0000

In their sense its more of a pure comparative "market" or trading perspective, as opposed to the massive underlying debt of the West. Despite current debt conditions, markets are still buying; commodities have popped out of their shell and they're chasing the market, as is the norm with these or any other guys....contrarian analysis is rare amongst these crews; they're afraid to be wrong and a quick way of getting noticed in terms of being wrong is to simply fade a harsh trend. Particularly in this example their they're comparing the Pound to the Euro, who's woes these days appear much more cumbersome than those of the UK. That's basically their major point.

wayne theron - Morgan Stanley Annual FX Review and Forecast

wayne theron — Mon, 3 Jan 2011 14:20:41 +0000

Steve i wonder how they see the pound so undervalued? i live in London and things are tough here with the horizon looking bleak indeed. our debt is 4.8 trillion and the government is not shrinking the public sector enough. in addition, they continue to inflict higher taxes which is only making the environment unpalatable to businesses. i really don't see things getting much better for a long time..

nobrainertrades - 2010 Performance and World Aggregate Data

nobrainertrades — Mon, 3 Jan 2011 13:56:15 +0000

Hi Wayne, For me personally it's not so black-and-white with these. For any bank forecasts I'm using them as more as a heads up than anything else. I don't listen to them verbatim/go with consensus, etc. They all have different areas of interest and might be discussing something that I might have overlooked or put less weight on, and at some point in a future something will eventually come into light that I'll be glad I read/had a previous knowledge of. It's just good to have a view of the bigger picture and then break it down just to see where weight is being distributed among analysts and traders. These guys are the ones everyone with any kind of influence reads so that's why they're my regular 'go-to's. But I would never simply listen to them and shadow. Heads up only and understanding your surroundings lets you steer through the landscape with greater ease usually, as is the case with anything else.

wayne theron - 2010 Performance and World Aggregate Data

wayne theron — Mon, 3 Jan 2011 13:42:06 +0000

Steve What weight do you give these longer term forecasts? do you carry longer term positions or are you assessing the banks outlooks to see what they might be planning?